Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on November 14?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $43 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$43.01

Combined PnL

-$62.37

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$42.56

Total Shares46

Combined PnL+$14.63

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.44

Total Shares305

Combined PnL-$77

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 56¢	$16.8	$27	+$10.2	34% 263-518 (781)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 58¢	$4.18	$6.49	+$2.31	72% 829-328 (1157)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 90¢	$5	$5.55	+$0.55	50% 701-690 (1391)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 55¢	$1.96	$3.53	+$1.57	49% 736-769 (1505)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 44.6¢	$40.68	$0.18	-$40.5	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.9¢	$71.28	$0.12	-$21.16	40% 625-948 (1573)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$24.09	$0.08	-$14.4	31% 146-327 (473)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.16	$0.04	-$0.12	48% 762-815 (1577)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.57	$0.01	-$0.56	13% 77-497 (574)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.26	$0.01	-$0.26	58% 703-504 (1207)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$27

PnL

+$10.2

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.18

Value

$6.49

PnL

+$2.31

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

Value

$5.55

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.96

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$1.57

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.68

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$40.5

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.28

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$21.16

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.09

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$14.4

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.12

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.56

Record

13%

77-497 (574)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.26

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.