Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on November 13?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 20¢ · $160 held · ends Nov 13

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$159.9

Combined PnL

$11.13

Smart Money Entry

24.2¢ → 20¢

-17% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$145.7

Total Shares767

Combined PnL+$13.69

No1 trader

Total Value$14.2

Total Shares17

Combined PnL-$2.56

Yes — 89%No — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 37.6¢	$154.03	$49.23	-$12.08	57% 1056-787 (1843)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.5¢	$34.35	$48.36	+$14.01	60% 2190-1463 (3653)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.1¢	$49.49	$32.65	-$1.84	37% 482-817 (1299)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$31.86	$14.2	-$2.56	53% 1163-1023 (2186)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.9¢	$21.76	$9.1	-$4.73	39% 11-17 (28)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$1.9	+$0.99	31% 580-1274 (1854)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$70.13	$1.9	+$21.07	36% 3549-6234 (9783)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$15.56	$1.61	-$2.44	13% 54-364 (418)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$2.25	$0.95	-$1.3	74% 735-262 (997)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$154.03

Value

$49.23

PnL

-$12.08

Record

57%

1056-787 (1843)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.35

Value

$48.36

PnL

+$14.01

Record

60%

2190-1463 (3653)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.49

Value

$32.65

PnL

-$1.84

Record

37%

482-817 (1299)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$31.86

Value

$14.2

PnL

-$2.56

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.76

Value

$9.1

PnL

-$4.73

Record

39%

11-17 (28)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0.99

Record

31%

580-1274 (1854)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.13

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$21.07

Record

36%

3549-6234 (9783)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.56

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$2.44

Record

13%

54-364 (418)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.25

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$1.3

Record

74%

735-262 (997)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.