Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on November 13?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 53¢ · $167 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$167.08
$24.75
73¢ → 52.5¢
-28% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 27.1¢ | $152.79 | $66.49 | +$58.73 | 58% 1047-766 (1813) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $76.23 | $45.36 | -$30.87 | 61% 2173-1382 (3555) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 63.2¢ | $19.58 | $16.28 | -$3.3 | 37% 461-788 (1249) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $21.9 | $14.1 | -$7.8 | 21% 104-396 (500) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $4.2 | $9.6 | +$5.4 | 13% 48-310 (358) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $5.37 | $7.36 | +$1.99 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $3.76 | $4.2 | +$0.44 | 38% 1415-2288 (3703) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.38 | -$0.02 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $1.14 | $1.33 | +$0.19 | 19% 25-107 (132) |
Invested
$152.79
Value
$66.49
PnL
+$58.73
Record
58%
1047-766 (1813)
Invested
$76.23
Value
$45.36
PnL
-$30.87
Record
61%
2173-1382 (3555)
Invested
$19.58
Value
$16.28
PnL
-$3.3
Record
37%
461-788 (1249)
Invested
$21.9
Value
$14.1
PnL
-$7.8
Record
21%
104-396 (500)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$4.2
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$5.4
Record
13%
48-310 (358)
Invested
$5.37
Value
$7.36
PnL
+$1.99
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$3.76
Value
$4.2
PnL
+$0.44
Record
38%
1415-2288 (3703)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.38
PnL
-$0.02
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
Invested
$1.14
Value
$1.33
PnL
+$0.19
Record
19%
25-107 (132)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.