Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on November 12?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $246 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$246.03

Combined PnL

-$23.73

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$242.94

Total Shares243

Combined PnL+$0.38

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.09

Total Shares773

Combined PnL-$24.11

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.8¢	$164.65	$164.84	+$0.2	99% 601-5 (606)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$59.78	$59.94	+$0.16	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$11.71	$11.75	+$0.04	25% 90-272 (362)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.11	$5.11	-$0	63% 451-268 (719)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$14.54	$1.59	-$12.95	64% 2127-1183 (3310)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.31	$1.29	-$0.01	47% 521-590 (1111)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.43	$1.14	-$0.29	35% 393-725 (1118)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.22	$0.3	-$9.71	49% 488-517 (1005)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.22	$0.05	-$1.16	35% 512-942 (1454)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$164.65

Value

$164.84

PnL

+$0.2

Record

99%

601-5 (606)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$59.78

Value

$59.94

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$11.71

Value

$11.75

PnL

+$0.04

Record

25%

90-272 (362)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0

Record

63%

451-268 (719)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.54

Value

$1.59

PnL

-$12.95

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

521-590 (1111)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0.29

Record

35%

393-725 (1118)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.22

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$9.71

Record

49%

488-517 (1005)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.16

Record

35%

512-942 (1454)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.