Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$149.97
-$0.84
92.8¢ → 93.3¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $54.74 | $54.92 | +$0.18 | 68% 2086-974 (3060) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $34.32 | $33.44 | -$0.52 | 55% 624-512 (1136) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $23.05 | $23.08 | +$0.03 | 34% 333-660 (993) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $18.94 | $18.46 | -$0.48 | 53% 5727-5123 (10850) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 91.6¢ | $10.77 | $10.85 | +$0.08 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $4.74 | $4.62 | -$0.12 | 40% 1334-2013 (3347) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $4.62 | $4.62 | +$0 | 78% 593-165 (758) |
Invested
$54.74
Value
$54.92
PnL
+$0.18
Record
68%
2086-974 (3060)
Invested
$34.32
Value
$33.44
PnL
-$0.52
Record
55%
624-512 (1136)
Invested
$23.05
Value
$23.08
PnL
+$0.03
Record
34%
333-660 (993)
Invested
$18.94
Value
$18.46
PnL
-$0.48
Record
53%
5727-5123 (10850)
Invested
$10.77
Value
$10.85
PnL
+$0.08
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$4.74
Value
$4.62
PnL
-$0.12
Record
40%
1334-2013 (3347)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$4.62
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
593-165 (758)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.