Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 71¢ · $418 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$417.55
$13.79
70.4¢ → 71¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 70.8¢ | $216.14 | $218.19 | +$2.05 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $104.66 | $109.62 | +$4.96 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $61.99 | $70.01 | +$8.03 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $25.94 | $11.37 | -$1.84 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $7.76 | $8.35 | +$0.59 | 40% 1439-2157 (3596) |
Invested
$216.14
Value
$218.19
PnL
+$2.05
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$104.66
Value
$109.62
PnL
+$4.96
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$61.99
Value
$70.01
PnL
+$8.03
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$25.94
Value
$11.37
PnL
-$1.84
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
Invested
$7.76
Value
$8.35
PnL
+$0.59
Record
40%
1439-2157 (3596)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.