Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on November 12?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 62¢ · $189 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$188.68
$0.01
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67ARB<$100 | Noavg 56.8¢ | $97.75 | $100.45 | +$2.7 | 68% 2086-974 (3060) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56.8¢ | $74.1 | $75.7 | +$1.6 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43¢ | $23.65 | $24.75 | +$1.1 | |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 39.9¢ | $59.83 | $65.7 | +$5.87 | 34% 333-660 (993) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.9¢ | $35.08 | $39.6 | +$4.52 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55¢ | $24.75 | $26.1 | +$1.35 | |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $11.6 | $11.6 | +$0 | 53% 5727-5123 (10850) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $6.94 | $6.82 | -$0.12 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $2.9 | $2.9 | +$0 | 40% 1334-2013 (3347) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $1.08 | $1.21 | +$0.12 | 59% 1023-710 (1733) |
Invested
$97.75
Value
$100.45
PnL
+$2.7
Record
68%
2086-974 (3060)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.83
Value
$65.7
PnL
+$5.87
Record
34%
333-660 (993)
Both legs:
Invested
$11.6
Value
$11.6
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5727-5123 (10850)
Invested
$6.94
Value
$6.82
PnL
-$0.12
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1334-2013 (3347)
Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.21
PnL
+$0.12
Record
59%
1023-710 (1733)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.