Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $388 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$388.34
$19.33
78.7¢ → 85¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $156.39 | $164.41 | +$8.02 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 77.1¢ | $156.63 | $157.24 | +$8.55 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $45.53 | $48.41 | +$2.88 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $9.76 | $9.76 | +$0 | 12% 49-371 (420) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $8.64 | $8.51 | -$0.13 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
Invested
$156.39
Value
$164.41
PnL
+$8.02
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$156.63
Value
$157.24
PnL
+$8.55
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$45.53
Value
$48.41
PnL
+$2.88
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$9.76
Value
$9.76
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
49-371 (420)
Invested
$8.64
Value
$8.51
PnL
-$0.13
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.