Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on November 12?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $130 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$130.19

Combined PnL

-$24.09

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$130.04

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$2.7

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.15

Total Shares296

Combined PnL-$26.79

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$78.66	$79.96	+$1.3	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$27.39	$28.32	+$0.93	35% 407-742 (1149)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98¢	$11.52	$11.75	+$0.23	27% 948-2550 (3498)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$9.76	$10	+$0.25	53% 905-797 (1702)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.73	$0.08	-$13.65	48% 498-549 (1047)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.81	$0.06	-$10.75	63% 2135-1236 (3371)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.22	$0.01	-$1.21	34% 523-997 (1520)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$0	-$0.81	19% 816-3584 (4400)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.37	$0	-$0.37	47% 4818-5478 (10296)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$78.66

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$1.3

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$27.39

Value

$28.32

PnL

+$0.93

Record

35%

407-742 (1149)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$11.52

Value

$11.75

PnL

+$0.23

Record

27%

948-2550 (3498)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.76

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

905-797 (1702)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.73

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$13.65

Record

48%

498-549 (1047)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.81

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$10.75

Record

63%

2135-1236 (3371)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.21

Record

34%

523-997 (1520)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

PnL

-$0.81

Record

19%

816-3584 (4400)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

PnL

-$0.37

Record

47%

4818-5478 (10296)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.