Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$80
$0.16
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.88 | $39.92 | +$0.04 | 99% 212-1 (213) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $18.6 | $18.67 | +$0.07 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $6.24 | $6.27 | +$0.03 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $5.1 | $5.1 | -$0 | 40% 644-964 (1608) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $5.04 | $5.05 | +$0.01 | 40% 329-494 (823) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $4.98 | $4.99 | +$0.01 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
Invested
$39.88
Value
$39.92
PnL
+$0.04
Record
99%
212-1 (213)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$18.67
PnL
+$0.07
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$6.27
PnL
+$0.03
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$0
Record
40%
644-964 (1608)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.01
Record
40%
329-494 (823)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.98
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.