Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on November 11?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $269 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$269.1
-$0.74
89.9¢ → 96¢
+7% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $178.85 | $174.46 | -$4.39 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $41.84 | $27.54 | -$0.48 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $22.3 | $23.25 | +$0.95 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 92.9¢ | $17.38 | $17.54 | +$0.16 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 83.3¢ | $13.86 | $15.53 | +$1.68 | 82% 506-111 (617) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 78.1¢ | $4.9 | $6 | +$1.09 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $4.53 | $4.78 | +$0.25 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
Invested
$178.85
Value
$174.46
PnL
-$4.39
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$41.84
Value
$27.54
PnL
-$0.48
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
Invested
$22.3
Value
$23.25
PnL
+$0.95
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$17.38
Value
$17.54
PnL
+$0.16
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$13.86
Value
$15.53
PnL
+$1.68
Record
82%
506-111 (617)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.09
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.53
Value
$4.78
PnL
+$0.25
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.