Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on November 11?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 46¢ · $347 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$347.09
-$2.21
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 36.7¢ | $284.53 | $325.28 | +$40.75 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.7¢ | $153.83 | $249.54 | +$95.71 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69.9¢ | $130.7 | $75.74 | -$54.96 | |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $12.75 | $13.21 | +$0.46 | 84% 481-91 (572) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $7.22 | $5.02 | -$2.21 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $2.9 | $2.5 | -$0.4 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $1.15 | $1.09 | -$0.07 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
Invested
$284.53
Value
$325.28
PnL
+$40.75
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Both legs:
Invested
$12.75
Value
$13.21
PnL
+$0.46
Record
84%
481-91 (572)
Invested
$7.22
Value
$5.02
PnL
-$2.21
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.4
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.09
PnL
-$0.07
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.