Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on November 11?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 81¢ · $472 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$471.69
-$56.88
92.8¢ → 80.7¢
-13% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $455.25 | $406.15 | -$49.11 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.8¢ | $56.62 | $21.31 | -$3.92 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $17.2 | $16.08 | -$1.12 | 81% 525-121 (646) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $16.08 | $15.04 | -$1.03 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $6.02 | $5.05 | -$0.97 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $4.04 | $4.04 | +$0 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $4.02 | -$0.73 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
Invested
$455.25
Value
$406.15
PnL
-$49.11
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$56.62
Value
$21.31
PnL
-$3.92
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$16.08
PnL
-$1.12
Record
81%
525-121 (646)
Invested
$16.08
Value
$15.04
PnL
-$1.03
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$6.02
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$0.97
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$4.04
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.02
PnL
-$0.73
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.