Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on November 11?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 92¢ · $483 held · ends Nov 11

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$483.35

Combined PnL

-$12.46

Smart Money Entry

96.5¢ → 92¢

-5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$481.53

Total Shares511

Combined PnL-$13.31

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.82

Total Shares23

Combined PnL+$0.85

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.7¢	$386.78	$375.19	-$11.59	30% 256-590 (846)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 94¢	$118.1	$45.88	+$0.33	54% 445-377 (822)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$28.54	$27.53	-$1.01	43% 334-446 (780)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97¢	$18.15	$17.55	-$0.6	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99¢	$6.22	$5.89	-$0.33	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$4.64	$4.79	+$0.15	48% 307-339 (646)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.69	-$0.26	37% 3136-5367 (8503)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$0.98	$1.82	+$0.85	66% 4093-2118 (6211)

241532532432

Invested

$386.78

Value

$375.19

PnL

-$11.59

Record

30%

256-590 (846)

ghorrock

Invested

$118.1

Value

$45.88

PnL

+$0.33

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$28.54

Value

$27.53

PnL

-$1.01

Record

43%

334-446 (780)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$18.15

Value

$17.55

PnL

-$0.6

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$6.22

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$0.33

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.79

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

307-339 (646)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.69

PnL

-$0.26

Record

37%

3136-5367 (8503)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$1.82

PnL

+$0.85

Record

66%

4093-2118 (6211)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.4%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.