Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on November 11?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $93 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$92.9
-$0.47
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $24.58 | $24.37 | -$0.21 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $24.17 | $24.06 | -$0.11 | 45% 273-328 (601) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $18.62 | $18.53 | -$0.08 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $9.73 | $9.72 | -$0.02 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $6.26 | $6.25 | -$0.01 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $5.02 | $5 | -$0.03 | 39% 309-489 (798) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $4.99 | $4.98 | -$0.02 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
Invested
$24.58
Value
$24.37
PnL
-$0.21
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
Invested
$24.17
Value
$24.06
PnL
-$0.11
Record
45%
273-328 (601)
Invested
$18.62
Value
$18.53
PnL
-$0.08
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$9.73
Value
$9.72
PnL
-$0.02
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$6.26
Value
$6.25
PnL
-$0.01
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$5.02
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.03
Record
39%
309-489 (798)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.98
PnL
-$0.02
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.