Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $59 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$59.03
-$0.09
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $24.24 | $24.18 | -$0.06 | 39% 303-465 (768) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $18.69 | $18.63 | -$0.07 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.27 | $6.27 | -$0.01 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.99 | -$0 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $4.98 | $4.97 | +$0.04 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
Invested
$24.24
Value
$24.18
PnL
-$0.06
Record
39%
303-465 (768)
Invested
$18.69
Value
$18.63
PnL
-$0.07
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$6.27
Value
$6.27
PnL
-$0.01
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5
Value
$4.99
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$4.98
Value
$4.97
PnL
+$0.04
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.