Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on November 10?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $109 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$108.74

Combined PnL

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$108.73

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$0

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$36.65	$36.65	+$0	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.97	+$0.03	4% 14-366 (380)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.33	$15.33	+$0	36% 462-806 (1268)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$12.49	$12.49	+$0	100% 93-0 (93)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.14	$8.14	+$0	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.05	$5.05	-$0	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.11	$1.08	-$0.03	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	57% 56-43 (99)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$36.65

Value

$36.65

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

14-366 (380)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$15.33

Value

$15.33

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$12.49

Value

$12.49

PnL

+$0

Record

100%

93-0 (93)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.14

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.03

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

56-43 (99)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.