Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on November 10?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 98¢ · $109 held · ends Nov 10

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$108.5

Combined PnL

-$7.29

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 98¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$106.4

Total Shares107

Combined PnL+$1.03

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.1

Total Shares351

Combined PnL-$8.32

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98¢	$35.96	$36.43	+$0.47	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98¢	$29.4	$29.79	+$0.39	5% 18-315 (333)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$15.08	$15.22	+$0.14	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$10.11	$10.05	-$0.06	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$9.91	$9.9	-$0.01	36% 462-806 (1268)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$4.91	$5	+$0.09	51% 197-186 (383)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$9.86	$1.99	-$7.87	21% 132-485 (617)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.15	$0.03	-$0.11	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.15	$0.03	-$0.11	57% 56-43 (99)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.14	$0.03	-$0.11	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.14	$0.03	-$0.11	30% 174-414 (588)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$35.96

Value

$36.43

PnL

+$0.47

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$29.79

PnL

+$0.39

Record

18-315 (333)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$15.08

Value

$15.22

PnL

+$0.14

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.11

Value

$10.05

PnL

-$0.06

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$9.91

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.01

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

PnL

+$0.09

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.86

Value

$1.99

PnL

-$7.87

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.11

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.11

Record

57%

56-43 (99)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.11

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.11

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.