Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (96%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on November 10?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 4.5¢ · $174 held · ends Nov 10

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$173.94

Combined PnL

-$18.94

Research grade

AvoidNo at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$76.55

Total Shares134

Combined PnL-$24.71

Yes5 traders

Total Value$26.76

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$5.77

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+26 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 51.8¢	$78.76	$70.63	-$8.13	89% 409-53 (462)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.2¢	$22.63	$38.68	+$16.05
└ No leg	Noavg 51.8¢	$56.13	$31.95	-$24.18
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 74¢	$30.81	$34.61	+$3.8	21% 132-485 (617)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$25.47	$14.68	-$10.8	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 69¢	$21.78	$12.63	-$9.16	11% 35-270 (305)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 57.3¢	$7.92	$9.01	+$1.09	34% 150-294 (444)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 65.5¢	$28.99	$8.61	-$7.22	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$3.32	$5.96	+$2.63	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$6.96	$5.81	-$1.15	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 42.6¢	$6.55	$4.53	-$2.02	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.35	$3.05	+$1.7	57% 56-43 (99)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.45	$2.94	+$1.49	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$0.81	$1.49	+$0.68	36% 462-806 (1268)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$78.76

Value

$70.63

PnL

-$8.13

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

Both legs:

Yes$22.6341.2¢+$16.05

No$56.1351.8¢-$24.18

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$30.81

Value

$34.61

PnL

+$3.8

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$25.47

Value

$14.68

PnL

-$10.8

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$21.78

Value

$12.63

PnL

-$9.16

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.92

Value

$9.01

PnL

+$1.09

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$28.99

Value

$8.61

PnL

-$7.22

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.32

Value

$5.96

PnL

+$2.63

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.96

Value

$5.81

PnL

-$1.15

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$6.55

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$2.02

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$1.7

Record

57%

56-43 (99)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$1.49

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$0.81

Value

$1.49

PnL

+$0.68

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+26 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.