Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on November 10?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (58%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $195 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$194.52

Combined PnL

$7.95

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$78.04

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$10.07

Yes7 traders

Total Value$30.02

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$2.12

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 51.1¢	$92.35	$86.45	-$5.9	21% 132-485 (617)
└ No leg	Noavg 46.1¢	$43.84	$47.5	+$3.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.1¢	$48.51	$38.95	-$9.56
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 59.4¢	$19.3	$24.17	+$4.87	28% 153-400 (553)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$20.77	$21.25	+$0.48	89% 409-53 (462)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 49.6¢	$18.2	$18.35	+$0.14	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 48.6¢	$13.23	$16.48	+$3.25	30% 174-414 (588)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 49¢	$14.7	$15	+$0.3	6% 18-276 (294)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.53	$4.04	+$1.5	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.05	-$0.9	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$3.5	$2.05	-$1.45	57% 56-43 (99)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$2.98	$1.97	-$1.01	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.57	$1.14	+$0.57	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.76	$1.12	+$0.35	31% 163-361 (524)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$0.61	$0.45	-$0.16	51% 197-186 (383)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.35

Value

$86.45

PnL

-$5.9

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Both legs:

No$43.8446.1¢+$3.66

Yes$48.5151.1¢-$9.56

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$19.3

Value

$24.17

PnL

+$4.87

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.77

Value

$21.25

PnL

+$0.48

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

$18.35

PnL

+$0.14

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$13.23

Value

$16.48

PnL

+$3.25

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$14.7

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.3

Record

18-276 (294)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.53

Value

$4.04

PnL

+$1.5

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.9

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.5

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$1.45

Record

57%

56-43 (99)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.98

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$1.01

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.57

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0.35

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.16

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.