Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $174 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$174.27
-$0.26
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $99.75 | -$0.15 | 100% 93-0 (93) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $31.47 | $31.42 | -$0.05 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.93 | -$0.04 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.14 | $8.13 | -$0.01 | 28% 153-400 (553) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.05 | $5.05 | -$0.01 | 34% 150-294 (444) |
Invested
$99.9
Value
$99.75
PnL
-$0.15
Record
100%
93-0 (93)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$31.47
Value
$31.42
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.93
PnL
-$0.04
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$8.14
Value
$8.13
PnL
-$0.01
Record
28%
153-400 (553)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$0.01
Record
34%
150-294 (444)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.