Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 30?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 62¢ · $655 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$654.99
$55.59
60.6¢ → 61.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 59.3¢ | $350.5 | $405.07 | +$54.56 | 51% 600-573 (1173) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 64.8¢ | $174.48 | $170 | -$1.81 | 24% 285-895 (1180) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.8¢ | $110.22 | $119 | +$8.77 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.2¢ | $61.58 | $51 | -$10.57 | |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $52.57 | $54.04 | +$1.47 | 61% 20767-13185 (33952) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $15.84 | $14.85 | -$0.99 | 50% 1689-1672 (3361) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 66.5¢ | $10.48 | $11.03 | +$0.55 | 57% 13272-10114 (23386) |
Invested
$350.5
Value
$405.07
PnL
+$54.56
Record
51%
600-573 (1173)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$174.48
Value
$170
PnL
-$1.81
Record
24%
285-895 (1180)
Both legs:
balthazar<$100Invested
$52.57
Value
$54.04
PnL
+$1.47
Record
61%
20767-13185 (33952)
Invested
$15.84
Value
$14.85
PnL
-$0.99
Record
50%
1689-1672 (3361)
Invested
$10.48
Value
$11.03
PnL
+$0.55
Record
57%
13272-10114 (23386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.