Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on October 29?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$136.87
40¢ → 50¢
+25% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 38¢ | $377.17 | $496.08 | +$153.39 | 51% 602-576 (1178) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 55.1¢ | $310.12 | $288.67 | -$6.8 | 24% 285-905 (1190) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.1¢ | $159.2 | $148.66 | -$10.93 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47¢ | $135.67 | $140.01 | +$4.13 | |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 45.9¢ | $156.58 | $165.39 | -$4.84 | 55% 306-250 (556) |
RO rocky42019<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $52.05 | $47.12 | -$4.93 | 42% 1688-2310 (3998) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 55.2¢ | $133.33 | $25.75 | -$6.75 | 53% 6388-5592 (11980) |
Invested
$377.17
Value
$496.08
PnL
+$153.39
Record
51%
602-576 (1178)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$310.12
Value
$288.67
PnL
-$6.8
Record
24%
285-905 (1190)
Both legs:
Invested
$156.58
Value
$165.39
PnL
-$4.84
Record
55%
306-250 (556)
Invested
$52.05
Value
$47.12
PnL
-$4.93
Record
42%
1688-2310 (3998)
Invested
$133.33
Value
$25.75
PnL
-$6.75
Record
53%
6388-5592 (11980)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.