Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 27?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 44¢ · $382 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$382.47
$7.68
49.3¢ → 43.5¢
-12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 49.1¢ | $204.06 | $213.83 | +$9.77 | 52% 556-511 (1067) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 53.5¢ | $158.95 | $145.9 | -$2.44 | 35% 273-515 (788) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 47.4¢ | $69.19 | $80.97 | +$10.73 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53.5¢ | $78.06 | $64.93 | -$13.17 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $16.35 | $14.55 | -$1.8 | 57% 12861-9776 (22637) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $6 | $5.15 | -$0.85 | 55% 205-167 (372) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $2.48 | $3.04 | +$0.56 | 53% 6207-5451 (11658) |
Invested
$204.06
Value
$213.83
PnL
+$9.77
Record
52%
556-511 (1067)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$158.95
Value
$145.9
PnL
-$2.44
Record
35%
273-515 (788)
Both legs:
Invested
$16.35
Value
$14.55
PnL
-$1.8
Record
57%
12861-9776 (22637)
Invested
$6
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$0.85
Record
55%
205-167 (372)
Invested
$2.48
Value
$3.04
PnL
+$0.56
Record
53%
6207-5451 (11658)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.