Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on November 8?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 31¢ · $133 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$132.67
$0.89
30.1¢ → 31¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.6¢ | $61.95 | $59.87 | -$2.08 | 53% 4144-3712 (7856) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $53.51 | $57.31 | +$3.79 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 83.7¢ | $16.31 | $15.49 | -$0.82 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.