Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C or higher on November 7?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $225 held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$225.19

Combined PnL

-$50.52

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$224.9

Total Shares225

Combined PnL+$0.11

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.29

Total Shares579

Combined PnL-$50.63

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$224.8	$224.9	+$0.11	97% 476-14 (490)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	$0.09	$0.09	-$16.27	43% 10696-14195 (24891)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yes	$0.06	$0.06	-$11.48	53% 4565-4056 (8621)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$3.4	$0.05	-$8.14	53% 12756-11431 (24187)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$4.62	$0.04	-$7.73	30% 491-1162 (1653)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$3.44	$0.02	-$3.42	31% 528-1203 (1731)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$1.82	37% 4076-6817 (10893)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.25	$0.01	-$0.24	28% 3035-7859 (10894)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$1.46	$0.01	-$1.54	30% 509-1206 (1715)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$224.8

Value

$224.9

PnL

+$0.11

Record

97%

476-14 (490)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$16.27

Record

43%

10696-14195 (24891)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$11.48

Record

53%

4565-4056 (8621)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.14

Record

53%

12756-11431 (24187)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.62

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.73

Record

30%

491-1162 (1653)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.44

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.42

Record

31%

528-1203 (1731)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.82

Record

37%

4076-6817 (10893)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.24

Record

28%

3035-7859 (10894)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.46

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.54

Record

30%

509-1206 (1715)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.