Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C or below on November 7?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$80.2

Combined PnL

-$43.53

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$79.96

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.24

Total Shares484

Combined PnL-$43.57

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.96	+$0.04	97% 457-14 (471)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	$0.08	$0.08	-$13.56	43% 10682-14179 (24861)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yes	$0.06	$0.06	-$11.48	53% 4562-4051 (8613)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$3.4	$0.05	-$8.14	53% 12738-11372 (24110)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.8¢	$3.91	$0.02	-$3.62	30% 488-1154 (1642)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$3.44	$0.02	-$3.42	30% 527-1203 (1730)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$1.82	37% 4076-6817 (10893)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$1.46	$0.01	-$1.54	30% 509-1206 (1715)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

97%

457-14 (471)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$13.56

Record

43%

10682-14179 (24861)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$11.48

Record

53%

4562-4051 (8613)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.14

Record

53%

12738-11372 (24110)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.91

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.62

Record

30%

488-1154 (1642)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.44

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.42

Record

30%

527-1203 (1730)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.82

Record

37%

4076-6817 (10893)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.46

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.54

Record

30%

509-1206 (1715)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.