Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on November 2?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 1.0¢ · $60 held · ended Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$59.5
-$299.42
28.8¢ → 1¢
-97% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $56.29 | $57.08 | +$0.79 | 35% 710-1327 (2037) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.9¢ | $78.99 | $1.32 | -$77.67 | 53% 3389-3008 (6397) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.6¢ | $12.99 | $0.7 | -$12.29 | 60% 2354-1539 (3893) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $210.65 | $0.4 | -$210.25 | 49% 728-747 (1475) |
Invested
$56.29
Value
$57.08
PnL
+$0.79
Record
35%
710-1327 (2037)
Invested
$78.99
Value
$1.32
PnL
-$77.67
Record
53%
3389-3008 (6397)
Invested
$12.99
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$12.29
Record
60%
2354-1539 (3893)
Invested
$210.65
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$210.25
Record
49%
728-747 (1475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.