Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on November 2?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $67 held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$67.13
$60.2
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $1.5 | $49.05 | +$44.75 | 60% 2354-1539 (3893) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.64 | $17.95 | +$16.31 | 35% 107-199 (306) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Noavg 16.5¢ | $0.99 | $0.14 | -$0.86 | 35% 710-1327 (2037) |
Invested
$1.5
Value
$49.05
PnL
+$44.75
Record
60%
2354-1539 (3893)
Invested
$1.64
Value
$17.95
PnL
+$16.31
Record
35%
107-199 (306)
Invested
$0.99
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$0.86
Record
35%
710-1327 (2037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.