Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on November 14?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $387 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$387.14

Combined PnL

-$1.97

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$387.08

Total Shares387

Combined PnL+$5.16

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.06

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$7.13

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 97.8¢	$195.57	$199.83	+$4.26	40% 633-964 (1597)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$46.11	$47.22	+$1.12	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$43.36	$43.46	+$0.1	99% 1243-13 (1256)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.97	+$0.06	29% 237-570 (807)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$25.32	$25.31	-$0.01	49% 769-816 (1585)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.98	+$0.04	29% 1098-2660 (3758)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$17.48	$13.11	-$0.4	27% 679-1844 (2523)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.19	$8.19	-$0	49% 739-774 (1513)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$43.52	$0.06	-$7.13	44% 5060-6556 (11616)

241532532432

Invested

$195.57

Value

$199.83

PnL

+$4.26

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$46.11

Value

$47.22

PnL

+$1.12

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$43.36

Value

$43.46

PnL

+$0.1

Record

99%

1243-13 (1256)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.06

Record

29%

237-570 (807)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$25.32

Value

$25.31

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

769-816 (1585)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

29%

1098-2660 (3758)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$17.48

Value

$13.11

PnL

-$0.4

Record

27%

679-1844 (2523)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$8.19

Value

$8.19

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

739-774 (1513)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.52

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$7.13

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.