Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 98¢ · $412 held · ends Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$412.11

Combined PnL

$7.62

Smart Money Entry

77.1¢ → 98.2¢

+27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$401.12

Total Shares498

Combined PnL+$14.79

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.99

Total Shares85

Combined PnL-$7.17

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 74.3¢	$284.62	$300.72	+$16.1	55% 1091-888 (1979)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 77¢	$38.5	$39.25	+$0.75	33% 225-451 (676)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$24.16	$23.78	-$0.38	58% 705-507 (1212)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 94¢	$19.1	$19	-$0.1	46% 1081-1285 (2366)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$7.85	$8.65	+$0.8	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$9.75	$8.35	-$1.39	40% 633-964 (1597)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 93¢	$7.63	$7.26	-$0.37	51% 748-722 (1470)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.7¢	$23.34	$2.64	-$5.78	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$18.73	$2.46	-$2.01	27% 679-1844 (2523)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$284.62

Value

$300.72

PnL

+$16.1

Record

55%

1091-888 (1979)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$38.5

Value

$39.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

33%

225-451 (676)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$24.16

Value

$23.78

PnL

-$0.38

Record

58%

705-507 (1212)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$19.1

Value

$19

PnL

-$0.1

Record

46%

1081-1285 (2366)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$7.85

Value

$8.65

PnL

+$0.8

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.75

Value

$8.35

PnL

-$1.39

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$7.63

Value

$7.26

PnL

-$0.37

Record

51%

748-722 (1470)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.34

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$5.78

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$18.73

Value

$2.46

PnL

-$2.01

Record

27%

679-1844 (2523)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.