Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on November 14?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 86¢ · $110 held · ends Nov 14

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$110.41

Combined PnL

-$1.78

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$37.08

Total Shares73

Combined PnL+$1.51

No8 traders

Total Value$73.33

Total Shares116

Combined PnL-$3.29

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$72.52	$29.23	+$0.91	31% 157-344 (501)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 85¢	$20.64	$21.25	+$0.61	51% 748-722 (1470)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 55¢	$16.5	$15.15	-$1.35	34% 240-466 (706)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$14.65	$12.19	-$2.46	58% 692-501 (1193)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 55¢	$11	$10.1	-$0.9	42% 1624-2283 (3907)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 87¢	$5.37	$5.49	+$0.12	50% 704-694 (1398)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.4¢	$4.25	$4.86	+$0.6	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 79¢	$6.48	$4.14	-$2.34	58% 705-507 (1212)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.77	$3.1	-$0.67	49% 739-774 (1513)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$3	$3	+$0	40% 633-964 (1597)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 88¢	$27.06	$1.91	+$3.7	27% 679-1844 (2523)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.52

Value

$29.23

PnL

+$0.91

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$20.64

Value

$21.25

PnL

+$0.61

Record

51%

748-722 (1470)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$16.5

Value

$15.15

PnL

-$1.35

Record

34%

240-466 (706)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$14.65

Value

$12.19

PnL

-$2.46

Record

58%

692-501 (1193)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$0.9

Record

42%

1624-2283 (3907)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.37

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

704-694 (1398)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$0.6

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.48

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$2.34

Record

58%

705-507 (1212)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.77

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.67

Record

49%

739-774 (1513)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$27.06

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$3.7

Record

27%

679-1844 (2523)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.