Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (82%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on November 14?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 19¢ · $163 held · ends Nov 14

Yes82¢No18¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$163.18

Combined PnL

$41.69

Research grade

AvoidNo at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes82%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$120.34

Total Shares422

Combined PnL+$23.94

No8 traders

Total Value$42.21

Total Shares129

Combined PnL+$17.75

Yes — 11%No — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 22.8¢	$96.4	$120.34	+$23.94	55% 1091-888 (1979)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$14.2	$14.3	+$0.1	40% 633-964 (1597)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 42.6¢	$20.48	$9.55	-$5.79	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$4.86	$5.96	+$1.1	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$3.04	$4.56	+$1.52	58% 692-501 (1193)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 29.4¢	$2.5	$3.81	+$1.32	50% 704-694 (1398)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$1.65	$2.3	+$0.65	58% 705-507 (1212)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$1.14	$1.38	+$0.24	49% 739-774 (1513)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$3.38	$0.35	+$18.61	27% 679-1844 (2523)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$96.4

Value

$120.34

PnL

+$23.94

Record

55%

1091-888 (1979)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

$14.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$20.48

Value

$9.55

PnL

-$5.79

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$5.96

PnL

+$1.1

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$3.04

Value

$4.56

PnL

+$1.52

Record

58%

692-501 (1193)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$1.32

Record

50%

704-694 (1398)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.65

Record

58%

705-507 (1212)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.24

Record

49%

739-774 (1513)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$3.38

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$18.61

Record

27%

679-1844 (2523)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.