Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on November 13?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 54¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$131.48
-$3.15
55.6¢ → 54¢
-3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 56.2¢ | $44.99 | $43.19 | -$1.8 | 51% 4761-4565 (9326) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $35.64 | $35.64 | +$0 | 34% 356-686 (1042) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $15.5 | $14.94 | -$0.56 | 53% 5815-5180 (10995) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 55.8¢ | $14.21 | $13.76 | -$0.45 | 40% 1355-2018 (3373) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 59.6¢ | $9.18 | $8.32 | -$0.86 | 38% 3366-5404 (8770) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $7.54 | $8.07 | +$0.53 | 55% 680-552 (1232) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $7.56 | $7.56 | +$0 | 68% 2107-989 (3096) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$44.99
Value
$43.19
PnL
-$1.8
Record
51%
4761-4565 (9326)
Invested
$35.64
Value
$35.64
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
356-686 (1042)
Invested
$15.5
Value
$14.94
PnL
-$0.56
Record
53%
5815-5180 (10995)
Invested
$14.21
Value
$13.76
PnL
-$0.45
Record
40%
1355-2018 (3373)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$9.18
Value
$8.32
PnL
-$0.86
Record
38%
3366-5404 (8770)
Invested
$7.54
Value
$8.07
PnL
+$0.53
Record
55%
680-552 (1232)
Invested
$7.56
Value
$7.56
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
2107-989 (3096)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.