Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on November 12?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $163 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$162.88
-$4
99.1¢ → 99.9¢
+1% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $46.98 | $47.21 | +$0.22 | 26% 116-337 (453) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $36.27 | $36.43 | +$0.15 | 49% 488-517 (1005) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $32.2 | $32.22 | +$0.02 | 47% 521-590 (1111) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $18.7 | $18.87 | +$0.17 | 53% 6040-5408 (11448) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $63.47 | $8.89 | -$4.58 | 63% 451-268 (719) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $6.01 | $6.04 | +$0.03 | 29% 892-2174 (3066) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.6 | $5.6 | -$0 | 63% 445-264 (709) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $5.15 | $5.12 | -$0.03 | 49% 471-500 (971) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $2.5 | $2.51 | +$0.01 | 99% 601-5 (606) |
Invested
$46.98
Value
$47.21
PnL
+$0.22
Record
26%
116-337 (453)
Invested
$36.27
Value
$36.43
PnL
+$0.15
Record
49%
488-517 (1005)
Invested
$32.2
Value
$32.22
PnL
+$0.02
Record
47%
521-590 (1111)
Invested
$18.7
Value
$18.87
PnL
+$0.17
Record
53%
6040-5408 (11448)
Invested
$63.47
Value
$8.89
PnL
-$4.58
Record
63%
451-268 (719)
Invested
$6.01
Value
$6.04
PnL
+$0.03
Record
29%
892-2174 (3066)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$5.6
PnL
-$0
Record
63%
445-264 (709)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5.12
PnL
-$0.03
Record
49%
471-500 (971)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.51
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
601-5 (606)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
godblessme2026
No — $47.21
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $36.43
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $32.22
cigarettes
No — $18.87
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658
No — $8.89
mildwindow27
No — $6.04
0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354
No — $5.6
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $5.12
1DVSBSTD
No — $2.51