Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on November 12?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 93¢ · $132 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$132.38
$4.28
90.2¢ → 93¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+11 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $33.85 | $33.76 | -$0.09 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $33.55 | $33.55 | +$0 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $18.6 | $18.6 | +$0 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $14.44 | $17.67 | +$3.23 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $15.79 | $16.31 | +$0.53 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.9¢ | $8.56 | $8.56 | +$0 | 68% 2064-954 (3018) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $3.3 | $3.92 | +$0.62 | 32% 290-625 (915) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$33.85
Value
$33.76
PnL
-$0.09
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$33.55
Value
$33.55
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$18.6
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$14.44
Value
$17.67
PnL
+$3.23
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
Invested
$15.79
Value
$16.31
PnL
+$0.53
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$8.56
Value
$8.56
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
2064-954 (3018)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$3.92
PnL
+$0.62
Record
32%
290-625 (915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.