Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on November 12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 53¢ · $66 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$66.09
$1.61
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 46%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $14.7 | $14.25 | -$0.45 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $10.81 | $10.66 | -$0.15 | 80% 562-144 (706) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $10.2 | $10.34 | +$0.14 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $9.2 | $10.34 | +$1.14 | 32% 290-625 (915) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $8.42 | $9.07 | +$0.65 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 51.7¢ | $8.3 | $8.3 | +$0 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $2.86 | $3.14 | +$0.28 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
Invested
$14.7
Value
$14.25
PnL
-$0.45
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$10.81
Value
$10.66
PnL
-$0.15
Record
80%
562-144 (706)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$10.34
PnL
+$0.14
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$10.34
PnL
+$1.14
Record
32%
290-625 (915)
Invested
$8.42
Value
$9.07
PnL
+$0.65
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$8.3
Value
$8.3
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$2.86
Value
$3.14
PnL
+$0.28
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.