Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on November 12?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 75¢ · $260 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$259.82
$8.42
71¢ → 75¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 70.8¢ | $226.14 | $234.93 | +$8.79 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $14.25 | $13.97 | -$0.29 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.2¢ | $5.8 | $6.25 | +$0.45 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $3.51 | $3.23 | -$0.28 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $1.7 | $1.45 | -$0.25 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
Invested
$226.14
Value
$234.93
PnL
+$8.79
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$14.25
Value
$13.97
PnL
-$0.29
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$6.25
PnL
+$0.45
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$3.23
PnL
-$0.28
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.45
PnL
-$0.25
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.