Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$126.31
-$0.6
98.4¢ → 97.8¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $35.76 | $35.48 | -$0.28 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $29.52 | $29.33 | -$0.19 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $19.69 | $19.55 | -$0.14 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $18.75 | $18.7 | -$0.05 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $17.22 | $17.27 | +$0.04 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $5.97 | $5.98 | +$0.02 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$35.76
Value
$35.48
PnL
-$0.28
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$29.52
Value
$29.33
PnL
-$0.19
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$19.69
Value
$19.55
PnL
-$0.14
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$18.75
Value
$18.7
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
Invested
$17.22
Value
$17.27
PnL
+$0.04
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$5.97
Value
$5.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.