Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $120 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$120.01
$0.24
99.5¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $85.65 | $85.84 | +$0.19 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $29.75 | $29.81 | +$0.06 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 99% 217-2 (219) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.78 | $1.78 | -$0 | 46% 317-371 (688) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $0.08 | $0.07 | -$0.01 | 51% 80-78 (158) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$85.65
Value
$85.84
PnL
+$0.19
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$29.75
Value
$29.81
PnL
+$0.06
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
217-2 (219)
Invested
$1.78
Value
$1.78
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
317-371 (688)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.01
Record
51%
80-78 (158)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.