Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $169 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$169.34
$2.56
95.7¢ → 97.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $82.94 | $83.52 | +$0.58 | 36% 3035-5349 (8384) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $45.66 | $46.5 | +$0.84 | 53% 5440-4884 (10324) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $28.41 | $29 | +$0.6 | 29% 2560-6176 (8736) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $9.61 | $10.19 | +$0.58 | 53% 335-299 (634) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.17 | $0.14 | -$0.03 | 51% 76-73 (149) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$82.94
Value
$83.52
PnL
+$0.58
Record
36%
3035-5349 (8384)
Invested
$45.66
Value
$46.5
PnL
+$0.84
Record
53%
5440-4884 (10324)
Invested
$28.41
Value
$29
PnL
+$0.6
Record
29%
2560-6176 (8736)
Invested
$9.61
Value
$10.19
PnL
+$0.58
Record
53%
335-299 (634)
Invested
$0.17
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$0.03
Record
51%
76-73 (149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.