Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 57¢ · $104 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$104.43
$2.07
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.9¢ | $60.23 | $62.19 | +$1.96 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 55.4¢ | $14.4 | $14.82 | +$0.42 | 25% 170-523 (693) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $11.8 | $11.6 | -$0.2 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 58.5¢ | $10.34 | $10.07 | -$0.26 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.9 | +$0.05 | 85% 448-79 (527) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.85 | +$0.1 | 35% 2930-5331 (8261) |
Invested
$60.23
Value
$62.19
PnL
+$1.96
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$14.82
PnL
+$0.42
Record
25%
170-523 (693)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$11.6
PnL
-$0.2
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
Invested
$10.34
Value
$10.07
PnL
-$0.26
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$0.05
Record
85%
448-79 (527)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.85
PnL
+$0.1
Record
35%
2930-5331 (8261)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.