Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on November 11?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 44¢ · $225 held · ends Nov 11

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$225.2

Combined PnL

$1.33

Smart Money Entry

43.5¢ → 44¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$211.25

Total Shares481

Combined PnL+$0.78

No2 traders

Total Value$13.95

Total Shares25

Combined PnL+$0.55

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 45¢	$140.58	$134.38	-$6.2	59% 1019-705 (1724)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 40.5¢	$61.6	$68.4	+$6.8	25% 170-523 (693)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 53¢	$10.6	$11.2	+$0.6	52% 5344-4847 (10191)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.4	-$0.1	50% 274-269 (543)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$3.79	$4.06	+$0.28	85% 448-79 (527)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.75	-$0.05	35% 2930-5331 (8261)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$140.58

Value

$134.38

PnL

-$6.2

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.6

Value

$68.4

PnL

+$6.8

Record

25%

170-523 (693)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.6

Value

$11.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

52%

5344-4847 (10191)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

274-269 (543)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.79

Value

$4.06

PnL

+$0.28

Record

85%

448-79 (527)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

35%

2930-5331 (8261)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.