Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on November 11?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 89¢ · $217 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$216.57
$4.41
93.5¢ → 89¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $70.09 | $67.83 | -$2.26 | 36% 3035-5349 (8384) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $56.2 | $53.1 | -$3.1 | 53% 5440-4884 (10324) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $26.17 | $35.08 | +$8.91 | 28% 213-547 (760) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $27.9 | $27.06 | -$0.84 | 29% 2560-6176 (8736) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $15.47 | $17.19 | +$1.72 | 69% 2060-945 (3005) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $9.54 | $9.58 | +$0.05 | 53% 335-299 (634) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $6.15 | $6.19 | +$0.03 | 84% 486-96 (582) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $0.63 | $0.54 | -$0.09 | 51% 76-73 (149) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$70.09
Value
$67.83
PnL
-$2.26
Record
36%
3035-5349 (8384)
Invested
$56.2
Value
$53.1
PnL
-$3.1
Record
53%
5440-4884 (10324)
Invested
$26.17
Value
$35.08
PnL
+$8.91
Record
28%
213-547 (760)
Invested
$27.9
Value
$27.06
PnL
-$0.84
Record
29%
2560-6176 (8736)
Invested
$15.47
Value
$17.19
PnL
+$1.72
Record
69%
2060-945 (3005)
Invested
$9.54
Value
$9.58
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
335-299 (634)
Invested
$6.15
Value
$6.19
PnL
+$0.03
Record
84%
486-96 (582)
Invested
$0.63
Value
$0.54
PnL
-$0.09
Record
51%
76-73 (149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.