Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$125.59
-$1.58
99.5¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $85.79 | $84.55 | -$1.24 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $19.64 | -$0.16 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $19.78 | $19.54 | -$0.24 | 30% 2667-6201 (8868) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.78 | $1.76 | -$0.03 | 48% 318-347 (665) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.01 | $0.1 | +$0.09 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$85.79
Value
$84.55
PnL
-$1.24
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.64
PnL
-$0.16
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$19.78
Value
$19.54
PnL
-$0.24
Record
30%
2667-6201 (8868)
Invested
$1.78
Value
$1.76
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
318-347 (665)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.1
PnL
+$0.09
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.