Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $153 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$152.8
-$1.05
92.9¢ → 97¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $64.08 | $63.48 | -$0.59 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $36.6 | $37.2 | +$0.6 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $23.92 | $22.72 | -$1.2 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $22.5 | $22.1 | -$0.41 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $6.76 | $7.31 | +$0.55 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$64.08
Value
$63.48
PnL
-$0.59
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$36.6
Value
$37.2
PnL
+$0.6
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$23.92
Value
$22.72
PnL
-$1.2
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$22.1
PnL
-$0.41
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$6.76
Value
$7.31
PnL
+$0.55
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.