Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on November 10?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 64¢ · $331 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$331.3
$2.73
52.8¢ → 64¢
+21% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 52.2¢ | $201.59 | $207.33 | +$5.74 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.9¢ | $46.01 | $43.71 | -$2.3 | 2% 12-662 (674) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 54.8¢ | $31.84 | $31.1 | -$0.74 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 51.5¢ | $20.6 | $21.4 | +$0.8 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 56.6¢ | $13.45 | $12.71 | -$0.74 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 53.5¢ | $10.14 | $10.25 | +$0.11 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $4.95 | $4.82 | -$0.13 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
Invested
$201.59
Value
$207.33
PnL
+$5.74
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$46.01
Value
$43.71
PnL
-$2.3
Record
2%
12-662 (674)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$31.84
Value
$31.1
PnL
-$0.74
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$20.6
Value
$21.4
PnL
+$0.8
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$13.45
Value
$12.71
PnL
-$0.74
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$10.14
Value
$10.25
PnL
+$0.11
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.82
PnL
-$0.13
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.