Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on November 10?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 54¢ · $308 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$307.72
$39.64
Research grade
NeutralYes at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 35.4¢ | $165.72 | $224.06 | +$58.34 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 54.4¢ | $37.14 | $31.4 | -$5.74 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $25.2 | $18.4 | -$6.8 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 57.5¢ | $23.28 | $16.81 | -$2.67 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 51.6¢ | $12.27 | $10.93 | -$1.34 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Noavg 62.2¢ | $8.27 | $6.11 | -$2.16 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
Invested
$165.72
Value
$224.06
PnL
+$58.34
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$37.14
Value
$31.4
PnL
-$5.74
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$18.4
PnL
-$6.8
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$23.28
Value
$16.81
PnL
-$2.67
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$12.27
Value
$10.93
PnL
-$1.34
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$8.27
Value
$6.11
PnL
-$2.16
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.