Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on November 10?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $186 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$185.93
-$3.07
94.2¢ → 93¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $65.37 | $63.82 | -$1.55 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $37.6 | $37.4 | -$0.2 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $31.13 | $29.26 | -$1.87 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $22.69 | $22.21 | -$0.48 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $34 | $17.2 | +$0.85 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $9.13 | $9.28 | +$0.15 | 2% 12-662 (674) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $6.73 | $6.77 | +$0.04 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$65.37
Value
$63.82
PnL
-$1.55
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$37.6
Value
$37.4
PnL
-$0.2
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$31.13
Value
$29.26
PnL
-$1.87
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$22.69
Value
$22.21
PnL
-$0.48
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$34
Value
$17.2
PnL
+$0.85
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$9.13
Value
$9.28
PnL
+$0.15
Record
2%
12-662 (674)
Invested
$6.73
Value
$6.77
PnL
+$0.04
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.