Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $104 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$104.48
$0
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $67.95 | $67.95 | -$0 | 35% 2852-5315 (8167) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $23.73 | $23.73 | -$0 | 28% 2405-6142 (8547) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.29 | $9.3 | +$0 | 30% 176-415 (591) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | +$0 | 100% 94-0 (94) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | 31% 166-362 (528) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$67.95
Value
$67.95
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
2852-5315 (8167)
Invested
$23.73
Value
$23.73
PnL
-$0
Record
28%
2405-6142 (8547)
Invested
$9.29
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
176-415 (591)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0
Record
100%
94-0 (94)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
166-362 (528)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.